The unimaginable scale of two years of invasion in Ukraine

To illustrate the extent of the destruction since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, we have teamed up with the Tagesspiegel Innovation Lab and Russian journalists in exile from “iStories” to analyze aerial images of three Ukrainian cities: Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk, and Bakhmut. This allows us to show, building by building, the extent to which these cities lost to Russia have been bombed.

To identify damaged buildings, analysts from Vertical 52 analyzed radar satellite data from before and after the fighting. They identified changes on the Earth's surface. To determine which of these were building damage, the data was automatically compared with building outlines. If the roof of a building—whether a residential building, office building, or shed—has changed significantly before and after fighting, this is considered damage.

Detecting building damage with satellites

The model has been validated for destruction in Gaza. Tests for the Ukraine results showed an accuracy of around 80 percent. The analysis is experimental with regard to Ukraine. It is possible that minor damage may be overlooked or intact houses next to destroyed ones may be incorrectly identified as damaged. In addition, certain types of destruction cannot be detected from the air. For example, if a building is completely burned out from the inside but the facade and roof are not severely damaged.

To avoid false detections, the model has been calibrated so that only major changes are classified as damage. Otherwise, there is a risk of classifying changes such as missing parked cars as damage. This is a rather conservative estimate. In the case of Mariupol, for example, the UN assumes significantly higher figures: 90 percent of multi-story buildings and 60 percent of smaller residential buildings in Mariupol have been destroyed.

In a recent report, the World Bank estimates that reconstruction costs for buildings alone will amount to US$60 billion for the whole of Ukraine. Sievierodonetsk, in the Luhansk region in northeastern Ukraine, has also been under Russian control since June 2022. Around 1,500 residents died during the fighting for the city.

The Russian army captured the city on June 25, 2022. Before that, Sievierodonetsk and the neighboring city of Lysychansk were the only larger parts of the Luhansk Oblast still under Ukrainian control. Before the war, around 100,000 people lived here; now, according to residents, there are very few left, with estimates putting the number at 10,000. Where are they supposed to live? According to experimental analysis, 36 percent of the buildings have been destroyed.

Sievierodonetsk had not yet been captured when the Russian army began attacking Bakhmut in May 2022. It was to be the longest battle of the war so far and one of the most bitter. Satellite analysis confirms this: 66 percent of all buildings are damaged. Hardly any part of the city is still intact.

At the end of May 2023, the head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced the capture of Bakhmut. According to the mayor of Bakhmut, Alexei Reva, around 500 people were still living in the city at the end of the fighting. Before the invasion, there were around 70,000. Russia had made another Ukrainian city almost uninhabitable – how many more will follow?

Partner:

We carried out the project with the Russian exile media organization “iStories” in collaboration with the Tagesspiegel Innovation Lab. The analysis of the amount of destroyed building structures is based on ESA Sentinel-1 radar data. The data was visualized by the Tagesspiegel Innovation Lab. The research is published via the Urban Journalism Network. The JX Fund supported the project.