“Operation Midnight Hammer”: How extensive is the destruction really?

US stealth bombers of the B-2 type made their way into Iranian airspace almost unnoticed during the night of June 21 to 22. Their target: the nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump had previously left open the possibility of an attack and thus of intervention in the war between Israel and Iran, granting himself a 14-day period of reflection. However, the decision was then made quickly and without the involvement of Congress.

After the military operation, reports differed on the extent of the damage to the facilities. In his speech immediately after the bombing, Trump said the facilities had been “completely destroyed.” Later, however, more and more voices emerged that estimated the extent of the destruction to be far less. We have compiled the analyses of various media outlets and provide an overview.

• The attack
• The destruction
• The aftermath

The attack

Due to their design, the stealth bombers used can only be detected by radar systems at short range. This enabled them to penetrate Iranian airspace almost undetected. They then attacked the nuclear facilities with GBU-57 bombs. These bombs can penetrate deep into rock. The SZ has devoted an entire article to the GBU-57. The ZEIT newspaper states: “Only this bomb is capable of dealing a fatal blow to Iran's nuclear program.” The ZEIT analysis of the attack can be read here.

The NZZ explains in a video why the mission to penetrate Iranian airspace undetected was only almost successful and how the first reports of the bombers in the air popped up.

But why is there now a dispute about how successful the operation was? And why the GBU-57 bombs of all things?

The reason for the attack was apparently Iran's advanced nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assumed that uranium in Iran's possession was enriched to 60 percent. Uranium suitable for nuclear weapons must be enriched to at least 90 percent. Nuclear researcher Steinhauser told tagesschau24 that between 60 and 90 percent is only a stone's throw away, as uranium enrichment is not a linear process.

The attacks by Israel and the US on Iran's nuclear facilities were intended to halt this development. Since the enrichment took place in the underground facility in Fordo, among other places, bombs with special depth effects were apparently needed.

Ventilation shafts as targets

The New York Times published an analysis of satellite images showing that the attacks in Fordo were apparently intended to hit ventilation shafts at the facility. The shafts were no longer visible on satellite images in 2011. However, images from 2009 show that the ventilation shafts were still visible at that time. According to the New York Times, which cites experts, it is possible that these shafts were used during construction and later filled in. This could have been a weak point in the facility.

The destruction

Initial doubts about the effectiveness of Trump's mission arose after information from a secret report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) became public. According to the report, Iran's nuclear program had probably only been set back a few months, but not destroyed. This was reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, citing CNN.

CNN and the New York Times were the first to report on the preliminary DIA intelligence document, prompting President Trump to take to the Truth Social platform to call for the reporters to be fired.

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) analyzed satellite images of the three nuclear facilities. Images of the facility in Fordo show several craters.

According to experts, these craters could be the impact holes of GBU-57 bombs. The satellite images do not reveal whether the centrifuges for enriching uranium in Fordo were actually destroyed.

According to the NZZ, Isfahan is home to a conversion plant for natural uranium into uranium metal that is important for Iran. The images there show the destruction of the entire site. Destroyed buildings are clearly visible.

The facility in Natanz was also attacked. Israeli forces had already attacked above-ground buildings there. During the US attack, there was an impact on a barren piece of land nearby, similar to the impacts in Fordo. It is possible that another underground facility is located here. Satellite images from 2003 suggest this.

A compilation of various satellite images taken before and after the attacks by the US and Israel, as well as of the clean-up operations, can be found at Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

The Indian Express took a somewhat unusual approach, using ChatGPT to analyze the satellite images. The linked article contains ChatGPT's answers to questions about what can be seen in the before and after images of the Fordo facility and whether the destruction could have been caused by a bunker-busting bomb.

The IAEA has now also issued a statement saying that it expects Iran to resume enrichment in a few months. Furthermore, it said that it is impossible to know where the uranium already enriched to 60 percent is located. According to Die Zeit, the Iranian parliament has voted to “suspend cooperation with the IAEA.”

The aftermath

Iran responded to the US attack with a counterstrike on a US air base in Qatar. After the attack, there were reports that Iran had warned the US in advance and that it was more of a symbolic act. The US president confirmed that there had been advance warning.

After the US attacks, Iran and Israel also agreed to a ceasefire. However, the question of what Iran will do with the Strait of Hormuz remains open. The shipping lane is located near the conflict zone and is considered the most important shipping passage for oil and gas trade. Wirtschaftswoche magazine addressed this question in its “Economy from Above” section.

Satellite images also provide information about the cleanup work taking place at the attacked nuclear facilities. The New York Times has published an analysis of this.